Thanks for writing this and so many other thoughtful posts. I notice this one doesn’t have any comments and was likely never going to get any. Even the PI piece only generated comments along the lines “it’s an entitlement for failure” and “i’m entitled to the entitlement”.

I think that augurs poorly for the future handling of this issue. As you know, Washington is one of only two Western states on downgrade watch and recent activities of the legislature has not shown the kind of willingness for gut-wrenching change that this problem entails.

This could reasonably be argued to be THE PROBLEM overshadowing every other in the State. Ten years from now? Five? Credit Default Swap prices put California’s bankruptcy at better than 50% likely in the next ten years (depending on recovery assumptions you use) and it would be interesting to know what Washington’s underlying default liklihood is as judge by the open marketplace.

Regardless, I wonder if a committee is it at work planning for what seems increasingly a possible endgame to this issue: default by the State of Washington. After all, our political processes are not made to cope with this kind of problem, and, in many ways, those very processes reinforce the problem. I think it would be helpful to the legislature and the Governor if some thoughtful people had made plans for how the State could handle this dire but increasingly likely outcome. Maybe they already are.

Well, given our relative state of health, not the worst, not the best, at least we won’t be alone.

Small comfort.